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Assessment of hazards and economic losses induced by land subsidence in Tianjin Binhai new area from 2011 to 2020 based on scenario analysis |
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| Authors: | Beibei Hu Jun Zhou Shiyuan Xu Zhenlou Chen Jun Wang Dongqi Wang Lei Wang Jifa Guo Weiqing Meng |
| Institution: | 1. College of Urban and Environment Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, China 2. Tianjin Land Subsidence Control Office, Tianjin, China 3. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China 4. Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA |
| Abstract: | Land subsidence, a major geological hazard in Tianjin, has caused serious losses. In this research, we established a numerical model to predict potential land subsidence caused by groundwater overdraft in the next decades. The model set three groundwater extraction scenarios, corresponding to (1) current rate, (2) 2 % decrease, and (3) South-to-North Water Transfer Project. Economic losses induced by land subsidence were calculated based on the three land subsidence scenarios. The results showed that with a better management plan (e.g., 2 % decrease in groundwater extraction) or with the success of the water transfer project, the economic loss could be reduced by 36 % or even 74 %. The results of this research provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development planning as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin Binhai New Area. |
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