| 1961—2019年河南秋季连阴雨天气气候特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜明哲,鲁坦,朱玉周,廖荣伟,房小怡.1961—2019年河南秋季连阴雨天气气候特征分析[J].气象与环境学报,2021,37(4):54-62. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜明哲 鲁坦 朱玉周 廖荣伟 房小怡 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室, 河南 郑州 4500032. 河南省气象服务中心, 河南 郑州 4500033. 河南省气象台, 河南 郑州 4500034. 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2020-077);华风集团基础型创新研究项目(CY-J2020003);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2021Z001);河南省气象局重点项目(KZ201802) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用河南省103个地面气象站1961-2019年逐日资料，采用滑动平均、小波分析、EOF分解等方法分析了河南区域性秋季连阴雨降水的时空分布特征，采用自组织神经网络方法(SOM)对河南区域性秋季连阴雨环流进行客观分型。结果表明：河南区域性秋季连阴雨以7-9 d的过程居多，其次为10 d以上过程。20世纪60年代和80年代是河南区域性秋季连阴雨多发期，90年代为连阴雨少发期，70年代和21世纪10年代发生次数与近59 a年均频次基本持平，21世纪10年代河南区域性秋季连阴雨比其他年代强，20世纪90年代强度最弱。20世纪70年代区域性秋季连阴雨年平均过程降水量存在准5 a周期，21世纪00年代前半期及10年代区域性秋季连阴雨年平均过程降水量存在2-3 a周期。近59 a河南区域性秋季连阴雨平均降水量分布上，黄河以南地区比黄河以北地区降水多，山区比平原地区多，降水大值区与山区分布基本一致。河南区域性秋季连阴雨降水空间分布型上，最主要的特征是全省一致变化型，其次是南北反相型。SOM方法不仅可以区分出环流形态上的差别，还可以区分出环流型的发生时间和连阴雨期间环流的阶段性演变特征。SOM分型得到8类区域性连阴雨环流型，从天气学意义上可归结为阻塞型、低槽型和平直环流型。大部分河南区域性秋季连阴雨过程为2到3种环流型的组合，不同环流型之间存在转换关系。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域性连阴雨 自组织神经网络 环流分型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-10-26 |
Analysis on climatic characteristics of continuous precipitation rain in autumn from 1961 to 2019 in He'nan province |
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| Ming-zhe DU,Tan LU,Yu-zhou ZHU,Rong-wei LIAO,Xiao-yi FANG.Analysis on climatic characteristics of continuous precipitation rain in autumn from 1961 to 2019 in He'nan province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2021,37(4):54-62. |
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| Authors: | Ming-zhe DU Tan LU Yu-zhou ZHU Rong-wei LIAO Xiao-yi FANG |
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| Institution: | 1. CMA·He'nan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003 China2. He'nan Meteorological Service Center, Zhengzhou 450003, China3. He'nan Meteorological Observatory, Zhengzhou 450003, China4. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily data of 103 meteorological stations in He'nan province from 1961 to 2019, the temporal statistical characteristics and spatial distribution characteristics of regional continuous precipitation were analyzed using moving average, wavelet analysis, and EOF decomposition. The regional circulation of continuous precipitation was objectively classified using the self-organizing maps (SOM) of neural network method. The results show that the process of continuous precipitation in autumn in He'nan province is mainly 7-9 days, followed by more than 10 days. In the 1960s and 1980s, the regional continuous precipitation in autumn occurs frequently in He'nan province, and in the 1990s, it occurs less frequently. The frequency in the 1970s and 2010s is the same as the average annual frequency in the recent 59 years. In the 2010s, it is stronger than that in other years, and the intensity is the weakest in the 1990s. The mean precipitation of continuous precipitation in autumn in the 1970s has a quasi-5-year period, and in the first half of the 2000s and 1980s it has a 2-3-year period. In recent 59 years, the regional mean precipitation of continuous precipitation in autumn in He'nan province is higher in the south of the Yellow River than that in the north of the Yellow River, and higher in the mountainous area than that in the plain area. The distribution of large precipitation values is basically the same as that of the mountainous area. On the spatial distribution pattern of regional mean precipitation of continuous precipitation in autumn in He'nan province, the most important characteristic is the consistent variation pattern of the whole province, followed by the inverse pattern of the north and south. The SOM method can not only distinguish the difference of circulation shape, but also distinguish the occurrence time of circulation pattern and the periodic evolution characteristics of circulation during continuous rainy and cloudy periods. According to the SOM classification, there are 8 types of regional circulation types with continuous precipitation, which can be summarized as blocking, low trough and direct circulations in synoptic sense. Most of the regional continuous precipitation processes in He'nan province are the combination of two or three circulation types, and there is a conversion relationship among different circulation types. |
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| Keywords: | Regional continuous precipitation SOM (self organizing maps) Circulation types |
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