| 辽宁省春季透雨集合预报误差分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨瑞雯,孙欣,谭政华,张宸赫,于亚鑫.辽宁省春季透雨集合预报误差分析[J].气象与环境学报,2021,37(1):26-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨瑞雯 孙欣 谭政华 张宸赫 于亚鑫 |
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| 作者单位： | 沈阳中心气象台,辽宁 沈阳110166;沈阳中心气象台,辽宁 沈阳110166;沈阳中心气象台,辽宁 沈阳110166;沈阳中心气象台,辽宁 沈阳110166;沈阳中心气象台,辽宁 沈阳110166 |
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| 基金项目： | 辽宁省气象局科研项目(202017)资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2016—2018年4月1日至6月30日三个全球数值预报业务中心(CMA、ECMWF和NCEP)的24 h降水集合预报资料和辽宁省降水观测资料,采用TS评分、预报偏差B、Talagrand分布以及BS评分等方法对辽宁省春季透雨(4—6月)CMA、ECMWF和NCEP三套全球集合预报结果进行对比分析.结果表明:三个集...
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 透雨降水 确定性检验 概率性检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-03-16 |
Analysis of ensemble forecast error for spring soakingprecipitation in Liaoning province |
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| YANG Rui-wen,SUN Xin,TAN Zheng-hua,ZHANG Chen-he,YU Ya-xin.Analysis of ensemble forecast error for spring soakingprecipitation in Liaoning province[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2021,37(1):26-32. |
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| Authors: | YANG Rui-wen SUN Xin TAN Zheng-hua ZHANG Chen-he YU Ya-xin |
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| Institution: | Shenyang Central Meteorological Observation, Shenyang 110166, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the 24 h precipitation ensemble forecast products from three global numerical forecast centers(CMA,ECMWF,and NCEP)and surface precipitation observations in the Liaoning province from April 1 to June 30 from 2016 to 2018 and using Threaten Score,Bias,Talagrand and Brier Score methods,the forecast errors for spring soaking precipitation of the above-mentioned products in corresponding time were compared and analyzed.The results show that the dispersions of the ensemble forecast systems of the three centers are all small and their Talagrand diagrams all have a U-shaped distribution.Specifically,each ensemble forecast system overestimates the small magnitude of precipitation and has a high false alarm,and is incapable in forecasting the large magnitude of precipitation and underestimates the extreme value,which is easy to produce forecast deviation.In addition,by comparing the deterministic and probabilistic test results,it is found that TS value is higher and B values are closer to 1 for ECMWF relative to the other two forecast centers,implying that ECMWF has less false alarms than the other centers for spring soaking precipitation forecast in Liaoning province.Besides,the comparisons on the BS value and its decomposition score value also show that ECMWF is better than the other two centers.In summary,with the spring precipitation forecasts closest to the observations in Liaoning province and the best test results,ECMWF is available for forecast service work in the future as the main reference. |
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| Keywords: | Ensemble forecast Spring soaking precipitation Deterministic test Probabilistic test |
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