| 大连地区ECMWF细网格10 m风场与观测实况对比与检验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 杨景泰,隋玉秀,肖剑,王丽娜,常慧琳,邬晓冬,王岩.大连地区ECMWF细网格10 m风场与观测实况对比与检验[J].气象与环境学报,2021,37(1):73-81. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 杨景泰 隋玉秀 肖剑 王丽娜 常慧琳 邬晓冬 王岩 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 大连市气象服务中心, 辽宁 大连 1160012. 空军航空大学, 辽宁 锦州 121000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目(QYXM201801)资助。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 选取2016年1月至2018年12月ECMWF（简称EC）细网格10 m风资料，与大连地区8个国家气象观测站地面各类实况风速资料进行对比分析，得出EC 10 m风速预报与最大风速最为接近，与极大风速相关性最好，EC 10 m风速对大连地区8站整体预报平均偏大。通过对EC 10 m风速各预报时限资料与其对应的最大风速误差进行统计分析。结果表明：按实况分类，从风速平均误差来看，实况3级与预报最接近，小于3级时预报偏大，大于3级时预报偏小，各风向间的风速误差也比较明显，但比风级间的误差要小一些；平均绝对误差则是2—3级最小。各时限风速平均误差相差不大，基本在0.1—0.3 m·s-1间，平均绝对误差则随时限延长呈缓慢增大趋势。风速误差具有明显的日变化，表现出白天小、夜间大、午后最小、下半夜最大的特征。风速误差也因测站不同，在不同风级和风向的反应也各不相同。
|
| 关 键 词： | 最大风速 模式检验 日变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-12-30 |
Comparison and verification of 10-m wind field based on ECMWFfine grid and observations in Dalian |
| |
| YANG Jing-tai,SUI Yu-xiu,XIAO Jian,WANG Li-na,CHANG Hui-lin,WU Xiao-dong,WANG Yan.Comparison and verification of 10-m wind field based on ECMWFfine grid and observations in Dalian[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2021,37(1):73-81. |
| |
| Authors: | YANG Jing-tai SUI Yu-xiu XIAO Jian WANG Li-na CHANG Hui-lin WU Xiao-dong WANG Yan |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Dalian Meteorological Service Center, Dalian 116001, China2. Aviation University of Air Force, Jinzhou 121000, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The 10-m wind data of European Center for Medium-Range Weather(ECMWF)fine mesh grid from January of 2016 to December of 2018 were evaluated using various observations from 8 national meteorological observation stations in Dalian.The results indicated that the 10 m wind forecast of ECMWF fine mesh grid is the closest to the maximum wind speed,and has the best correlation with the maximum instantaneous wind speed.The whole forecast results of ECMWF 10 m wind speed for eight stations in Dalian are relatively larger on average.From the error statistical analysis between ECMWF 10 m wind forecast data and its corresponding maximum wind speed,the results showed that forecast is closest to the observation when the wind is at level 3,larger than observations when the wind is below level 3,and smaller than that when the wind is above level 3 by the classification of the observation data from the mean error(ME)of wind speed.The wind speed errors of different directions are also obvious,but smaller than those of different wind scales.Mean absolute error(MAE)is the smallest when the wind is between levels 2 and 3.There is no significant difference in ME during all the forecast times,which is mainly between 0.1-0.3 m·s-1.But MAE increases slowly with the extension of forecast time.The wind speed errors had obvious diurnal variations,which show the characteristics of small in the day and large at night,the smallest in the afternoon,and the largest after midnight.They also vary at different stations,wind levels,and wind directions. |
| |
| Keywords: | Maximum wind Mode verification Diurnal variation |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象与环境学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
