| 对T106分析／预报场可预报性的初步分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李Chong 于波 等.对T106分析／预报场可预报性的初步分析[J].气象科学,2001,21(4):379-391. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李Chong 于波 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省气象局, |
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| 基金项目： | 江苏省自然科学基金项目 ( BK990 2 0 )，“973— CHERES”项目 ( G1 9980 4 0 90 7)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文围绕日常天气预报的需求和为区域数值天气预报模式定义天气背景场和初值场的需要，针对9210工程MICAPS系统中T106谱模式的客观分析场和预报场的可预报性进行了初步诊断，定量分析比较了T106、欧洲中心ECMWT、华盛顿KEBC和日本JAPAN数值模式对天气环流形势和预报的统计误差，并初步探讨了模式误差的自身预报问题。文中指出了T106模式的误差源主要来自于其客观分析场的固定误差，提出了以集成客观分析场作为客观分析，提供预报员预报参考或作为数值预报的背景初值场。
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| 关 键 词： | T106模式 客观分析 可预报性 集成客观分析场 数值天气预报 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年8月3日 |
THE PRELIMINARY ANALYSES ON THE RELIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY OF T106 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING FIELD |
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| Li Chong,Wang Yuan,Pan Yinong,Zhang Lujun.THE PRELIMINARY ANALYSES ON THE RELIABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY OF T106 OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING FIELD[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2001,21(4):379-391. |
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| Authors: | Li Chong Wang Yuan Pan Yinong Zhang Lujun |
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| Abstract: | For the need of daily weather prediction and an urgent call for the definition of ambient field as the initial input of regional forecasting model,a diagnostic analysis has been made for the spectra model T106,as well the ECMWF in European Center,the JAPAN model in Japan and the KWBC in the United State.All of them,such as the analyzing and forecasting fields at the standard levels,are indeed provided as the routine output in the MICAPS system of Project 9210. Our analyses are focused on the quantitative comparison of the models in terms of statistical error levels.Meanwhile we also discussed the possibilities to make the forecast of the prediction error in the T106 itself.We found the major error source in T106 model that is actually due to the fixed error existing in the T106 objective analysis field. Finally,a so called assembly objective analysis field is derived from the blending of valid model analysis fields in MICAPS.Such filtered field gives an opportunity for weather forecaster to make correct analysis,and it is also indeed the better initial boundary condition as input being used in the regional forecasting model. |
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| Keywords: | T106 model Objective analysis Predictability Assembly objective analysis |
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