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National vulnerability to extreme climatic events: the cases of electricity disruption in China and Japan |
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| Authors: | Jing-Li Fan Qiao-Mei Liang Xiao-Jie Liang Hirokazu Tatano Yoshio Kajitani Yi-Ming Wei |
| Institution: | 1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China 2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China 3. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 6110011, Japan 4. Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo, 1008126, Japan |
| Abstract: | Extreme climatic events are likely to adversely affect many countries throughout the world, but the degrees among countries may be different. China and Japan are the countries with high incidences of extreme weather/disaster, both facing with the urgent task of addressing climate change. This study seeks to quantitatively compare the impacts of extreme climatic events on socioeconomic systems (defined as vulnerability) of the two countries by simulating the consequences of hypothetical same degree of electricity disruption along with extreme events. To do that, two computable general equilibrium models are constructed, by using which three-stage scenarios are simulated for China and Japan, respectively. The results reveal that China and Japan have unequal socioeconomic vulnerabilities to extreme events. (1) Negative impact of the same degree of power outages is bigger on China’s socioeconomic system than on that of Japan, and this difference is more obvious in the very short-run scenario. (2) The decline of China’s GDP, total output, and employment levels is 2–3 times higher than that of Japan, while the difference of the resident welfare levels is sharper, which of China drops 3–5 times of Japan. (3) Structural factors are the main reason for vulnerability differences between China and Japan, including the differences of expenditure structure, factor input structure for production of life requirement sectors, material and energy dependence for the production of industrial sectors, and usage structure of services outputs. Based on these findings, some policy implications and recommendations for fairness issues on climate change adaptation are proposed. |
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