| Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄玮琼 吴宣 |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100081 China，Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake Administration Beijing 100081 China |
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| 基金项目： | Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China （ 103051 ）. Contribution No. 06FE3015, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, |
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| 摘 要： | Introduction In the probability analysis method of seismic risk considering time-space inhomogeneity of seismic activity and adopted commonly in China (State Seismological Bureau, 1996) (called in-homogeneous distribution model for short), the division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters are the main links that affect significantly the estimation of ground motion parameters of a site. HUANG and WU (2005) studied …
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 活动性 活动参数 风险管理 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-9116（2006）03-0284-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-11-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-01-06 |
Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis |
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| HUANG Wei-qiong,WU Xuan.Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2006,19(3):284-291. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Wei-qiong WU Xuan |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to further reveal the interrelation among division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic
sources and estimation of seismicity parameters, we select 21 representative sites located in different places within the
range of 100°∼120°E, 29°∼42°N to study the influences of seismicity parameter uncertainties of statistical regions on seismic
risk estimations of these sites in the inhomogeneous and homogeneous distribution models. Combining the results from this
study and previous ones, we can see that different schemes for dividing seismic statistical regions can change the seismic
data in a statistical region. The uncertain data and additional uncertainty in selecting time intervals for seismic statistics
will result in uncertainty of seismicity parameters estimation in a statistical region. For the homogeneous model, the larger
the variation of this uncertainty is, the greater the uncertain influence on the seismic risk estimation of a site will be,
which means that the division of seismic statistical regions makes a major contribution. In a seismic statistical region,
the delimitation of potential sources and variant weight assignment of spatial distribution functions can raise the estimated
values of ground motion parameters in the place where great earthquake might occur and its vicinity. In these places, the
influence of uncertainty in potential source delimitation is very obvious, especially on the absolute magnitude of ground
motion parameters (e.g., intensity), which means that the link of potential source delimitation makes a major effect. Generally speaking, the link
of potential source delimitation affects mainly the sites located in the potential sources with the highest and second-high
upper-limit earthquake magnitudes or in the vicinity of those with the highest upper-limit magnitude. While for the sites
located in the potential sources with low upper-limit magnitudes, the uncertainty influence of statistical region division
is larger than that of potential source delimitation.
Contribution No. 06FE3015, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. |
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| Keywords: | seismic statistical region seismicity parameter potential seismic source homogeneous distribution inhomogeneous distribution uncertainty interrelation |
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