Structural changes in trend parameters of the MLT winds based on wind measurements at Obninsk (55°N, 37°E) and Collm (52°N, 15°E) |
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| Authors: | EG Merzlyakov Ch Jacobi YuI Portnyagin TV Solovjova |
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| Institution: | aInstitute for Experimental Meteorology, Obninsk, Russia;bInstitute for Meteorology, University of Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Recent analysis of the long-term behavior of different geophysical data has demonstrated that trend parameters can change during a period of observation. Sophisticated general methods for an objective analysis of structural changes in linear trends have been developed during the last 10 years. Such methods are applied for an analysis of changes in trend parameters of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere wind observed over Obninsk (55°N, 37°E) from 1964 to 2007 and Collm (52°N, 15°E) from 1979 to 2008, respectively. We found that trend models with breakpoints are generally preferred against straight lines. At Obninsk, there are break-years in trends of the winter prevailing winds close to 1977, when a climatic regime shift was observed. The break-years in trends of the semidiurnal tides for both stations are close to years of possible changes in stratospheric ozone. Correlations of the Obninsk and Collm winds with atmospheric indices are also considered. |
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| Keywords: | Trends Structural changes Mesosphere and lower thermosphere Wind |
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