| 影响中国夏季降水的前冬北半球中高纬大气环流年际变异主模态 |
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| 引用本文： | 王雅媛,杨修群,罗悦,赵萌初.影响中国夏季降水的前冬北半球中高纬大气环流年际变异主模态[J].气象科学,2024,44(1):25-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王雅媛 杨修群 罗悦 赵萌初 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学 大气科学学院/中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室, 南京 210023 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFE0106600) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用观测和再分析资料，通过奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition, SVD)分析，发现北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation, AO)是显著影响中国夏季降水年际异常的前冬中高纬大气环流变异的主模态。AO在冬季发展成熟，在春季衰亡，在夏季发生位相反转。AO会导致华北、东北、长江中下游和华南夏季降水异常呈现三极型分布。伴随正位相的AO,在黄海至日本海上空的异常低压伴随的东北风异常引起华北和东北水汽通量异常辐散及降水减少，而西北太平洋的异常高压不仅增强其北侧的西南风水汽输送，和北部异常低压共同作用导致长江中下游水汽通量异常辐合及降水增加，而且使得华南水汽通量异常辐散，降水减少。因此，本文发现的前冬AO模态与我国夏季三极型异常降水分布的关系可为我国夏季旱涝预测提供一个重要的中高纬前期因子。
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| 关 键 词： | 大气环流 北极涛动 中国夏季降水 水汽异常 年际变率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/5/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/5/19 0:00:00 |
Leading mode of winter Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation interannual anomalies affecting following summer precipitation in China |
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| WANG Yayuan,YANG Xiuqun,LUO Yue,ZHAO Mengchu.Leading mode of winter Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation interannual anomalies affecting following summer precipitation in China[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2024,44(1):25-34. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yayuan YANG Xiuqun LUO Yue ZHAO Mengchu |
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| Institution: | China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China |
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| Abstract: | By using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis with observational and reanalysis data,this paper found that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the leading mode of the preceeding winter atmospheric circulation variations in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitude that significantly affacts the interannual anomalies of summer precipitation in China.In general,AO matures in winter,decays in spring,and turns into an opposite phase in summer.AO tends to cause a tripole pattern of summer precipitation anomalies in North China,Northeast China,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and South China.Corresponding to a positive phase of AO,an anomalous atmospheric cyclone prevailing over the Yellow Sea and the Japan Sea makes an anomalous northeasterly moisture flux divergence over northern China,causing negative precipitation anomalies there.Meanwhile,the anomalous atmospheric cyclone is accompanied by an anomalous atmospheric anticyclone over Northwest Pacific Ocean,causing an anomalous moisture flux convergence over middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley and thus positive precipitation anomalies there.In addition,the anomalous atmospheric anticyclone over Northwest Pacific Ocean also makes an anomalous southwesterly moisture flux divergence over southern China,causing negative precipitation anomalies there.Therefore,the relationship between the tripole pattern of China summer precipitation anomalies and the preceding winter AO found in this study offers a crucial mid-to-high latitude predictor for pratical prediction of flood/drought in China. |
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| Keywords: | atmospheric circulation AO China summer precipitation moisture flux convergence interannual variability |
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