| 江苏区域性天气气候变化对常见疾病发生的可能影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 石天润,何川,伏兵,简黎明,陈星.江苏区域性天气气候变化对常见疾病发生的可能影响[J].气象科学,2023,43(1):91-100. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 石天润 何川 伏兵 简黎明 陈星 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京大学 大气科学学院, 南京 210023;南京医科大学附属江苏盛泽医院, 江苏 苏州 215228;南京医科大学康达学院附属连云港市第二人民医院, 江苏 连云港 222023;汉中市铁路中心医院, 陕西 汉中 723000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41475062) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于2010—2019年江苏省两所具有区域代表性的医院较为完整的10 a常见疾病住院病例数据、区域同期气象资料,从不同时间尺度分析了气象要素与疾病发病的可能关系,探讨了气象条件和气候变化背景下主要疾病病例数的变化特征。结果表明:儿科肺炎、慢性阻塞性肺病等呼吸系统疾病具有明显的季节变化特征,其对气温等气象要素有较强的敏感性,而寒潮等天气过程对此类疾病有诱发作用。作为年际气候变化关键信号的ENSO模态,可以通过调节不同地区的天气频率,间接对疾病发生产生影响。根据天气变化与疾病发病机理的关系和气候模式模拟预估的未来气候变化情景,到本世纪末的气候背景可能有利于减少肺炎和慢性阻塞性肺病的发病率,但也需注意天气尺度气温变率加剧造成相关疾病的多发。
|
| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 呼吸系统疾病 发病机理 脆弱性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/5/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/5/20 0:00:00 |
Possible impacts of regional weather and climate changes on the occurrence of common diseases |
| |
| SHI Tianrun,HE Chuan,FU Bing,JIAN Liming,CHEN Xing.Possible impacts of regional weather and climate changes on the occurrence of common diseases[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2023,43(1):91-100. |
| |
| Authors: | SHI Tianrun HE Chuan FU Bing JIAN Liming CHEN Xing |
| |
| Institution: | School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;Jiangsu Shengze Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu Suzhou 215228, China;Lianyungang Second People''s Hospital Affiliated to Kangda College of Nanjing Medical University, Jiangsu Lianyungang 222023, China;Hanzhong Railway Central Hospital, Shaanxi Hanzhong 723000, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on common diseases hospitalized cases data from two representative regional hospitals in Jiangsu Province in 2010-2019 and meteorological data during the same period, the potential relationships between meteorological factors and incidence of disease were analyzed under the different background of meteorological conditions and climate change for the different time scales. Results show that respiratory diseases such as pediatric pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have obvious seasonal variation characteristics, which have a strong sensitivity to meteorological elements such as temperature. Weather processes such as cold waves have an inducing effect on such diseases. As key signals of inter-annual climate change, ENSO modes can indirectly affect disease occurrence by regulating weather frequencies in different regions. Based on the relationship between weather changes and disease pathogenesis, the incidence of pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease will reduce according to the weather model. But it is also necessary to pay attention to the increase in temperature variability to cause the recurrence of related diseases. |
| |
| Keywords: | climate change respiratory diseases pathogenesis vulnerability |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
