| 中国地震烈度评定值的统计检验 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 潘岳怡,俞言祥,肖亮.中国地震烈度评定值的统计检验[J].地球物理学报,2017,60(2):593-603. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 潘岳怡 俞言祥 肖亮 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081;2. 广西壮族自治区地震局, 南宁 530022 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划课题（2012BAK15B01，2015BAK18B01）和全国地震区划图编制项目共同资助. |
| |
| 摘 要： | 为研究我国地震烈度的评定是否存在随时间变化的趋势,本文从统计的角度,选取合适的烈度衰减关系模型作标准,基于残差分析的基本原理,对1900年到2013年间392个地震的烈度评定值随年份变化的趋势进行了统计分析,并提出一种改进的衡量拟合优劣的算法,量化数据的整体偏差并直观地展现数据的离散程度.统计检验结果表明,烈度评定值无论按区域划分、按震级划分或是按烈度划分均与整体存在一致且显著的时间分布趋势:1960年之前烈度评定值较为离散,1960年到1980年左右烈度评定值逐年减小,1980年开始烈度评定值逐渐增大,2000年以后绝大多数烈度评定值高于平均水平,且该时段烈度评定值偏高程度尤为明显,平均总体偏高约0.4度,且有继续增高的趋势.
|
| 关 键 词： | 地震烈度 残差分析 时间趋势 统计检验 正态分布 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-02-29 |
Statistical tests of seismic intensity ratings in China |
| |
| PAN Yue-Yi,YU Yan-Xiang,XIAO Liang.Statistical tests of seismic intensity ratings in China[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2017,60(2):593-603. |
| |
| Authors: | PAN Yue-Yi YU Yan-Xiang XIAO Liang |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China;2. Earthquake Administration of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning 530022, China |
| |
| Abstract: | In order to investigate whether there is a temporal variability trend of seismic intensity ratings in China, plenty of the isoseismal lines are analyzed in detail. This work selects the appropriate intensity attenuation as a standard, and then makes a statistical analysis on the temporal trends of earthquake intensity ratings of 392 seismic events in China during 1900-2013. The research is based on the principle of residual analysis. We propose an improved algorithm in this context that permits not only to quantify the deviations but also to illustrate the dispersion degrees of data directly. The results of statistical analysis show that the intensity ratings change with time dramatically. What's more, when intensity ratings divide by region, by magnitude and by intensity, the temporal trends are the same as whole data:before 1960, intensity ratings were relatively discrete; in the 1960-1980 periods, there was a decreasing trend in the intensity ratings, and an increasing trend since 1980. Furthermore, it is worth noting that most of intensity ratings are above average since 2000. Intensity ratings were significantly higher at this time, whose overall average is around 0.4 degrees on the high side, and have a tendency to continue to increase. |
| |
| Keywords: | Seismic intensity Residual analysis Time trend Statistical test Normal distribution |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《地球物理学报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《地球物理学报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
