|
|||||
|
|
A new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: including an example for Taiwan |
|
| Authors: | J P Wang Yih-Min Wu Duruo Huang Su-Chin Chang |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay, Hong Kong 2. Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 3. Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong |
| Abstract: | Since the year 1973, more than 54,000 M w ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have occurred around Taiwan, and their magnitude–frequency relationship was found following with the Gutenberg–Richter recurrence law with b value equal to 0.923 from the least-square calculation. However, using this b value with the McGuire–Arabasz algorithm results in some disagreement between observations and expectations in magnitude probability. This study introduces a simple approach to optimize the b value for better modeling of the magnitude probability, and its effectiveness is demonstrated in this paper. The result shows that the optimal b value can better model the observed magnitude distribution, compared with two customary methods. For example, given magnitude threshold = 5.0 and maximum magnitude = 8.0, the optimal b value of 0.835 is better than 0.923 from the least-square calculation and 0.913 from maximum likelihood estimation for simulating the earthquake’s magnitude probability distribution around Taiwan. |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ | |