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Mechanism and comprehensive countermeasure for drought management from the view of catastrophe theory
Authors:Xiao-jun Wang  Jian-yun Zhang  Xue-wei Tong  Shahid Shamsuddin  Rui-min He  Xing-hui Xia
Institution:1. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China
2. Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing, 210029, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
4. Department of Planning and Programming, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing, 100053, China
5. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia
Abstract:Drought is one of the major disasters around the world which cause great social and economic hardship. Recent events of severe droughts have motivated comprehensive research on drought management in China like many other countries of Asia, Europe and Africa. In this paper, the mechanism of drought management has been analyzed in light of water supply and water demand management considering water shortage as an inductor of drought. Catastrophe theory has been proposed to explain transitions through discontinuities and unexpected changes in water system. The study indicates that supply management can increase water supply; however, in long term, it may not be sustainable for drought mitigation. Water demand management, on the other hand, improves water use efficiency with less investment. Therefore, the study emphasizes water demand managements for drought management under future changing scenarios.
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