| 起算震级与衰减不确定性校正 |
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| 引用本文： | 沈建文,蔡长青.起算震级与衰减不确定性校正[J].中国地震,1998,14(4):36-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 沈建文 蔡长青 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析表明，起算震级Ｍ０对危险性分析结果的表现为当Ｍ０取取值不够低时，场地的危险性将被低估。此种低估影响与场地的地震危险性高低潜源距场地的距离及衰减公式的形式和标准差有关。
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| 关 键 词： | 危险性分析 不确定性校正 起算震级 地震 |
Threshold Magnitude and Correction of Attenuation Uncertainty |
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| Shen Jianwen\ Cai Changqing.Threshold Magnitude and Correction of Attenuation Uncertainty[J].Earthquake Research in China,1998,14(4):36-43. |
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| Authors: | Shen Jianwen\ Cai Changqing |
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| Abstract: | It is pointed out in this paper that the effect of threshold magnitude M 0 to the result of seismic hazard analysis may be expressed as underestimating the hazard when M 0 is not small enough.Such underestimate is related to the hazard level of the site,the distances of the site to the main potential source and the attenuation law.The effect of M 0 grows with the rising of the hazard,the distance between site and main potential source,and the standard error of the attenuation law.Roughly speaking,for regions of basic intensities 7 or above 7,and main potential source is at a distance from the site, M 0 takes 4.0 can meet the cases for results of the probabilities of exceedance 10% and 3% in 50 years.But for 63% in 50 years,the effect of M 0 is large.To let the underestimate error be smaller than 10%, M 0 should take magnitude 3.0 or lower.For regions with lower seismic hazard,or the main potential source is near to the site, M 0 takes magnitude 4.0 may underestimate the seismic hazard of 10% in 50 years.From the results obtained in this paper, M 0 should take suitable low magnitude according to practical circumstances,even if the method is not perfect,the uncertainty is large at the low magnitude part of the attenuation law.According to this paper,there are large uncertainty taking the acceleration of 63% in 50 years as earthquake resistant level for strength.It is more reasonable setting the earthquake resistance level of strength by discounting the acceleration of 10% in 50 years according to structure quality. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic hazard analysis\ Correction of attenuation uncertainty\ Threshold magnitude |
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