| 均生函数模型预报检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏生生,曹鸿兴,魏凤英.均生函数模型预报检验[J].气象,1998,24(5):42-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏生生 曹鸿兴 魏凤英 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对均生函数时间序列模型所作多种类型的预报进行检验发现，均生函数模型不但对观测统计值（如年、月平均值）而且对瞬时观测值（如最高气温）也有很好的效果；不但对平稳变化（如温度）而且对急剧起伏量（如太阳黑子）也有令人满意的结果。文中同时提出了改进均生函数模型的方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 均生函数 模型预报 检验 天气预报 |
Tests of Mean Generating Function Model Predictions |
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| Wei Shengsheng\ Cao Hongxing\ Wei Fengying.Tests of Mean Generating Function Model Predictions[J].Meteorological Monthly,1998,24(5):42-46. |
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| Authors: | Wei Shengsheng\ Cao Hongxing\ Wei Fengying |
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| Abstract: | By checking the predictions of various types from the mean generating function time serial model, it is discovered that the mean generating function model is able to give satisfactory results, not only to the statistical values of observations (e.g. yearly or monthly means), but also to the instant values of observations (e.g. max temperatures), not only to the smoothly varied variables (e.g. temperature), but also to the violently changed variables (e.g.sunspot). Some methods to improve the mean generating function model are presented also. |
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| Keywords: | mean generating function\ model\ prediction test |
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