The Mesoscale Predictability of a Heavy Precipitation Event |
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| Authors: | ZHAI Danhua and LIN Yonghui |
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| Institution: | [1]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 [2]Chongqing Meteorological Bureau, Chongqing 401147 |
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| Abstract: | Using the mesoscale model MM5, the development of initial condition uncertainties at different scales and amplitudes and their influences on the mesoscale predictability of the "0185" Shanghai heavy precipitation event are investigated. It is found that different initial conditions obtained from different globe model analyses lead to large variations in the simulated location and strength of the heavy precipitation, and the scales and amplitudes of the initial condition perturbations significantly influence... |
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| Keywords: | mesoscale predictability error growth heavy precipitation |
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