Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence |
| |
| Authors: | Herak Marijan Herak Davorka Marku?i? Snje?ana Ivan?i? Ines |
| |
| Institution: | (1) University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia;(2) Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia |
| |
| Abstract: | The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M
L
 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock. |
| |
| Keywords: | aftershocks Omori law epidemic type aftershock sequence confidence limits |
| 本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
|
