Simulated ENSO-tropical rainfall teleconnections in present-day and under enhanced greenhouse gases conditions |
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| Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">P?CamberlinEmail author F?Chauvin H?Douville Y?Zhao |
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| Institution: | (1) Centre de recherches de climatologie, Université de Bourgogne, Sciences Gabriel, 6 Bd Gabriel, 21000 Dijon, France;(2) Météo-France CNRM/GMGEC/UDC, 42 Avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France;(3) LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 9804 #, Beijing, 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and its relationship with precipitation in the tropics and subtropics are analysed using the ARPEGE-OPA ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Three 150-year simulations are considered, differing by greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols concentrations. The first one has constant (1950 level) concentrations, and the two others follow observed values till 1999, then the SRES B2 scenario until 2099. The model is able to reproduce most present-day features characteristic of ENSO in the Pacific. It also displays ENSO as the leading mode of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability, with spatial patterns and explained variance both quite similar to the observation. A detailed analysis of its teleconnections with rainfall variability is carried out on a seasonal basis. Patterns for the last part of the twentieth century compare favourably with the observation, with the notable exception of parts of the Atlantic sector. The overall strong rainfall response arises from the strong interannual variability of simulated ENSO, and also suggests an ability to simulate atmospheric dynamics in a realistic way. In the future climate, the model does not exhibit major changes in the ENSO/rainfall teleconnections. However, on a regional basis, there is some evidence of strengthening (e.g., in parts of Southern Africa) and weakening (e.g., East Africa) in the course of the twenty-first century. In most cases, decadal swings in the correlations suggest that these alterations may partly reflect natural changes in the teleconnections with ENSO, long-term correlation trends (possibly GHG-induced) being comparatively weaker. |
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