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| 应用雷达资料的临近预报方法对比试验 | |
| 引用本文： | 蒋志,程明虎,周燕.应用雷达资料的临近预报方法对比试验[J].气象科技,2013,41(3):516-521. |
| 作者姓名： | 蒋志 程明虎 周燕 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象科学研究院,北京100081;中国气象局气象探测中心,北京100081 2. 中国气象局气象探测中心,北京,100081 3. 中国气象局气象探测中心,北京100081;成都信息工程学院,成都610225 |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象局行业专项“中国多种降水观测资料融合技术研究”(GYHY201006043)资助 |
| 摘 要： | 选取单部雷达的CAPPI资料,在TREC(Tracking Reflectivity Echo by Correlation)的基础上,引入径向基函数网络、广义回归网络、小波BP网络3种人工神经网络以及支持向量机,对雷达反射率因子进行1h的临近预报研究,并与TREC外推预报的结果进行了比较.使用了命中率、虚警率、漏报率、临界成功指数、相关系数和均方根误差6个指标检验人工神经网络、支持向量机和TREC的预报效果.结果表明:在使用这些指标检验预报效果时设定的阈值对预报结果的评价有影响；网络与TREC以及不同的网络之间的预报结果存在着差异；与TREC相比,支持向量机比TREC总体上能更好地预报未来1h以内强对流性天气的发展变化情况. |
| 关 键 词： | TREC 临近预报 人工神经网络 支持向量机 |
| 收稿时间： | 2/3/2012 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 5/3/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Comparison Experiment of Methods for Weather Nowcasting with Radar Echoes |
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| Jiang Zhi,Cheng Minghu and Zhou Yan.Comparison Experiment of Methods for Weather Nowcasting with Radar Echoes[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2013,41(3):516-521. | |
| Authors: | Jiang Zhi Cheng Minghu and Zhou Yan |
| Abstract: | Based on TREC (Tracking Reflectivity Echo by Correlation) method, selecting single radar CAPPI data, introducing three kinds of artificial neural networks, such as the radial basis function network, generalized regression neural network, and back propagation neural network with wavelet, as well as support vector machine (SVM), one hour forecast experiments of radar reflectivity are made, and the forecast results are compared with those of TREC. Six indexes of hit rate (HR), false alarm rate (FAR), no alarm probability (NAP), critical success index (CSI), correlation coefficient, and root mean square error are applied to evaluate the forecast effectiveness. The results show that when using HR, FAR, NAP, and CSI, the given thresholds play a key role on the evaluation and the smaller thresholds show better results. There is difference between various networks, as well as SVM and TREC. SVM performs better in one hour nowcasting on the whole, compared with TREC on forecasting strong convective development and changes of storms. |
| Keywords: | TREC nowcasting artificial neural network support vector machine |
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