| 如何看待我国地震预报研究在防震减灾中的作用 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄兴伟.如何看待我国地震预报研究在防震减灾中的作用[J].国际地震动态,2009(6):24-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄兴伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东省地震局信宜地震台,广东信宜,525300 |
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| 摘 要： | 自20世纪60年代开始，地震预报研究至今已40多年，但到目前为止，仍然未取得突破性进展；而另一方面随着社会经济的迅速发展和对人的生命价值的重视，社会和民众对准确预报地震的期望十分迫切，特别是5·12汶川大地震的发生，使得一些群众对地震预报工作产生怀疑和不理解。地震预报研究到底有无作用？本文从地震灾害的特点、地震预报的难点和我国地震预报探索几十年来所取得的成效作一阐述，并对如何提高地震预报实效提出几点讨论意见。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报 地震灾害 防震减灾 |
Earthquake Forecast Study in the Role of Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction in China |
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| Huang Xingwei.Earthquake Forecast Study in the Role of Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction in China[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2009(6):24-31. |
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| Authors: | Huang Xingwei |
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| Institution: | Xinyi Seismic Station;Guangdong Earthquake Administration;Xinyi 525300;China |
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| Abstract: | Since 1960s, there has been more than 40 years for earthquake forecast study which still has had no breakthrough up to now. However, with the fast development of the social economy and increase of the life quality of the people, society and people call for higher accuracy of earthquake forecast. Nevertheless, the occurrence of Wenchuan earthquake has made Some people distrust and misunderstand of earthquake forecast study. Is really the earthquake forecast study useful？ To answer it, four points have been explained in the paper： ①The features of earthquake disasters. ② The difficulties in earthquake forecast. ③The achievements for decades in earthquake forecast research in China. ④Some suggestions on how to improve the accuracy of earthquake forecast. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake forecast earthquake disaster earthquake prevention and disaster deduction |
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