Integrated scenarios of acidification and climate change in Asia and Europe |
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| Authors: | Maximilian Posch Jean-Paul Hettelingh Joseph Alcamo Maarten Krol |
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| Institution: | aNational Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands;bCenter for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Straβe 3, D-34109 Kassel, Germany;cPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Two integrated assessment models, one for climate change on a global scale (IMAGE 2) and another for the regional analysis of the impacts of acidifying deposition (RAINS), have been linked to assess the impacts of reducing sulphur emission on ecosystems in Asia and Europe. While such reductions have the beneficial effect of reducing the deposition of acidifying compounds and thus the exceedance of critical loads of ecosystems, they also reduce the global level of sulphate aerosols and thus enhance the impact of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, and consequently increase the risk of potential vegetation changes. The calculations indicate that about 70% of the ecosystems in Asia would be affected by either acid deposition or climate change in the year 2100 (up from 20% in 1990) for both sulphur emission scenarios (controlled and uncontrolled), whereas in Europe the impacted area would remain at a level of about 50%, with a dip early next century. More generally, the effects of reducing sulphur emissions and thus enhancing climate change would about balance for the Asian region, whereas for Europe the desirable impact of sulphur emission reductions would greatly outweigh its undesirable effects. |
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