Seismic Risk Evaluation |
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| Authors: | F Meroni G Zonno |
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| Institution: | (1) Istituto di Ricerca sul Rischio Sismico - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Milan, Italy |
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| Abstract: | This paper reports the main results of the EC-ProjectSERGISAI. The project developed a computer prototypewhere a methodology for seismic risk assessment hasbeen implemented. Standard procedural codes,Geographic Information Systems and ArtificialIntelligence Techniques compose the prototype, whichpermits a seismic risk assessment to be carried outthrough the necessary steps. Risk is expressed interms of expected damage, given by the combination ofhazard and vulnerability. Two parallel paths have beenfollowed with respect to the hazard factor: theprobabilistic and the deterministic approach. Thefirst provides the hazard analysis based on historicaldata, propagation models, and known seismic sources.The deterministic approach provides the input forscenarios, by selecting a specific ground motion.With respect to the vulnerability factor, severalsystems have been taken into account apart frombuildings, which are usually considered in this typeof analysis. Defining vulnerability as a measure ofhow prone a system is to be damaged in the event of anearthquake, an attempt has been made to move from theassessment of individual objects to the evaluation ofthe performance of urban and regional areas. Anotherstep towards an approach which can better serve civilprotection and land use planning agencies has beenmade by adapting the analysis to the followinggeographical levels: local, sub-regional and regional.Both the hazard and the vulnerability factors havebeen treated in the most suitable way for each one, interms of level of detail, kind of parameters and unitsof measure. In this paper are shown some resultsobtained in two test areas: Toscana in Italy, for theregional level, the Garfagnana sub-area in Toscana,for the sub-regional level, and a part of the city ofBarcelona, Spain, for the local level. |
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