| RCP情景下内蒙古黄河流域径流预估及其对水资源的影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 孟玉婧,李喜仓,白美兰,杨晶,徐静.RCP情景下内蒙古黄河流域径流预估及其对水资源的影响[J].气象科技,2021,49(1):124-130. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 孟玉婧 李喜仓 白美兰 杨晶 徐静 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 内蒙古自治区气候中心,呼和浩特 010051;河北省秦皇岛市气象局,秦皇岛 066000 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 内蒙古自治区科学技术厅科技计划项目“气候变化对内蒙古黄河流域水资源影响评估研究”、内蒙古自治区科学技术厅科技计划项目“内蒙古地区强降水诱发的山洪灾害预警技术研究及应用——以赤峰市为例” (20130431)和内蒙古气候服务创新团队共同资助 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 根据内蒙古黄河流域内72个国家气象站观测的1961—2005年和区域气候模式CCLM模拟的1961—2100年的气温和降水数据,采用BP人工神经网络模型,预估分析3种RCP情景下头道拐水文站2011—2100年流量变化,评估未来气候变化对流域水资源的可能影响。结果表明:①2011—2100年内蒙古黄河流域气温升高,降水变化不明显,年平均流量呈减少趋势,RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景分别减少3.6%、2.7%和23.4%。②未来春季流量以增加为主;夏季在不同情景的变化趋势不一致;秋季在21世纪50年代前以增加为主,之后以减少为主;冬季则以减少为主。③未来流域可利用水资源呈减少趋势,尤其夏季水资源的供需矛盾加剧,以及径流季节分配发生变化,可能产生更大的春季径流。
|
| 关 键 词： | CCLM模式 BP神经网络模型 内蒙古黄河流域 径流预估 水资源 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/3/4 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/8/10 0:00:00 |
Runoff Estimate and Its Impact on Water Resources in Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia under RCP scenarios |
| |
| MENG Yujing,LI Xicang,BAI Meilan,YANG Jing,XU Jing.Runoff Estimate and Its Impact on Water Resources in Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia under RCP scenarios[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2021,49(1):124-130. |
| |
| Authors: | MENG Yujing LI Xicang BAI Meilan YANG Jing XU Jing |
| |
| Institution: | (Climate Center of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Hohhot 010051;Qinhuangdao Meteorological Service,Hebei,Qinhuangdao 066000) |
| |
| Abstract: | According to the temperature and precipitation data observed by 72 national meteorological stations from 1961 to 2005 and simulated by the regional climate model CCLM from 1961 to 2005 in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia, the BP neural network model is used to predict and analyze the runoff changes in the Toudaoguai hydrological station under three RCP scenarios from 2011 to 2100, so to evaluate the possible impact of future climate change on water resources in the basin. The results show that: (1) From 2011 to 2100, the temperature in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia would increase, but the precipitation would not change significantly, and the annual average runoff show a decreasing trend. Corresponding to the scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, the decrease would be by 3.6%, 2.7% and 23.4%, respectively. (2) In the future, the spring runoff would mainly increase; in summer, the trends of runoff change in different scenarios would be inconsistent; in autumn, the runoff would mainly increase before the 2050s and then decrease mainly; in winter, the runoff would mainly decrease. (3) In the future, the available water resources in the basin would decrease, and especially the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources would intensify in summer. The seasonal distribution of runoff would change, which might result in greater spring runoff. |
| |
| Keywords: | CCLM model BP neural network model Yellow River Basin runoff estimate water resources |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《气象科技》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科技》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
