| 基于沟床宽度与颗粒粒径的泥石流精细化预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 余斌,杨凌崴,刘清华,常鸣.基于沟床宽度与颗粒粒径的泥石流精细化预报模型[J].地球科学,2020,45(4):1447-1456. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余斌 杨凌崴 刘清华 常鸣 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室, 四川成都 610059 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目41661134010 |
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| 摘 要： | 泥石流形成区沟床宽度和颗粒粒径对沟床起动型泥石流的发生影响很大，在强烈地震影响区内显得尤为突出，但目前的泥石流预报中还没考虑到这两个因素，无法准确预测强震区泥石流的发生.在泥石流10 min和1 h精细化预报模型基础上，通过现场调查群发泥石流事件，结合汶川地震强烈影响区泥石流的演化特点，引入了泥石流形成区沟道宽度和颗粒粒径的影响，建立了改进的精细化泥石流10 min和1 h预报模型，并在贵州望谟打易和四川德昌群发泥石流、汶川地震强烈影响区的文家沟多次泥石流事件中获得了很好的验证结果，得出泥石流形成区的颗粒粒径代表泥石流的地质因子，泥石流形成区沟床宽度代表泥石流的地形因子之一，这2个因子在泥石流发生中的作用都非常重要；改进的精细化10 min和1 h预报模型以及临界值，可以用于强烈地震区和一般的泥石流预报.
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| 关 键 词： | 泥石流 沟床起动 沟床宽度 颗粒粒径 灾害防治 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-06-01 |
A Precise Prediction Model on Debris Flows Caused by Runoff Mechanism Based on Channel Width and Particle Size |
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| Abstract: | The channel width and particle size in the formation area of debris flow catchment are important factors in the initiation of debris flows caused by runoff mechanism. This phenomenon is often found in the debris flows in strong earthquake area. Up to now, there is no prediction model of debris flow involving these two factors. Based on the 10 min and 1 h precise prediction model of debris flow, this study proposes a revised 10 min and 1 h precise prediction model of debris flow with channel width and particle size by field investigations. The validations were made in the group debris flow events of Dayi, Wangmo County, Guizhou Province, in the group debris flow events of Dechang, Sichuan Province, and a series debris flows in Wenjia Gully located in the Wenchuan earthquake area. The validations were successful in these debris flows events. It is concluded that the particle size in the formation area of debris flow catchment is the geological factor, and the channel width of the formation area of debris flow catchment is one of the topographical factor. Both of them are very important in the formation of debris flows. The revised 10 min and 1 h precise prediction model of debris flows can be used for forecasting of the ordinary debris flows and debris flows in strong earthquake area. |
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