| Abstract: | Diagnostics are presented from an ensemble of high-resolution forecasts that differed markedly in their predictions of the rapid intensification(RI) of Typhoon Rammasun. We show that the basic difference stems from subtle differences in initializations of(a) 500-850-h Pa environmental winds, and(b) midlevel moisture and ventilation. We then describe how these differences impact on the evolving convective organization, storm structure, and the timing of RI. As expected,ascent, diabatic heating and the secondary circulation near the inner-core are much stronger in the member that best forecasts the RI. The evolution of vortex cloudiness from this member is similar to the actual imagery, with the development of an inner cloud band wrapping inwards to form the eyewall. We present evidence that this structure, and hence the enhanced diabatic heating, is related to the tilt and associated dynamics of the developing inner-core in shear. For the most accurate ensemble member:(a) inhibition of ascent and a reduction in convection over the up-shear sector allow moistening of the boundary-layer air, which is transported to the down-shear sector to feed a developing convective asymmetry;(b) with minimal ventilation, undiluted clouds and moisture from the down-shear left quadrant are then wrapped inwards to the up-shear left quadrant to form the eyewall cloud; and(c) this process seems related to a critical down-shear tilt of the vortex from midlevels, and the vertical phase-locking of the circulation over up-shear quadrants. For the member that forecasts a much-delayed RI, these processes are inhibited by stronger vertical wind shear, initially resulting in poor vertical coherence of the circulation, lesser moisture and larger ventilation. Our analysis suggests that ensemble prediction is needed to account for the sensitivity of forecasts to a relatively narrow range of environmental wind shear, moisture and vortex inner-structure. |
