Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data |
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| Authors: | Linna Zhao Dan Qi Fuyou Tian Hao Wu Jingyue Di Zhi Wang Aihua Li |
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| Institution: | 1 Public Meteorological Service Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081 2 National Meteorological Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081 3 Anhui Weather Modification Office,Anhui Provincial Meteorological Service,Hefei 230031 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the precipitation and temperature data obtained from THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment)
Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE)-China Meteorological Administration (CMA) archiving center and the raingauge data,
the three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model was employed to carry out probabilistic hydrological
forecast experiments over the upper Huaihe River catchment from 20 July to 3 August 2008. The results show that the performance
of the ensemble probabilistic prediction from each ensemble prediction system (EPS) is better than that of the deterministic
prediction. Especially, the 72-h prediction has been improved obviously. The ensemble spread goes widely with increasing lead
time and more observed discharge is bracketed in the 5th-99th quantile. The accuracy of river discharge prediction driven
by the European Centre (EC)-EPS is higher than that driven by the CMA-EPS and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP)-EPS, and the grand-ensemble prediction is the best for hydrological prediction using the VIC model. With regard to
Wangjiaba station, all predictions made with a single EPS are close to the observation between the 25th and 75th quantile.
The onset of the flood ascending and the river discharge thresholds are predicted well, and so is the second rising limb.
Nevertheless, the flood recession is not well predicted. |
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| Keywords: | probabilistic hydrological prediction TIGGE variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model Huaihe River |
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