Estimating Petroleum Resources Using Geo-Anchored Method--A Sensitivity Study |
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| Authors: | Chen Zhuoheng Sinding-Larsen Richard |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Geology and Mineral Resource Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7034 Trondheim, Norway |
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| Abstract: | The Geo-anchored method, based on a moment-type estimator, has been developed for estimating parent population properties from a successive sample of discoveries. By substituting the expectation of the waiting time z
(n+1) of the (n + 1)
th
discovery to occurrence for an unknown parameter  in the anchored method, the Geo-anchored method allows estimation of inclusion probabilities directly from observed data, thus eliminating the need for a priori selection of a value of N, R, or some other feature of the parent population. Because direct estimation of N and R requires an ordered sample, the Geo-anchored method is more sensitive to the data-generating process than the anchored method. This paper presents a sensitivity study on the Geo-anchored method. The test is based on simulated discovery sequences with different assumptions regarding discovery efficiency, exploration maturity, and the shape of the parent field size distribution. As a reference for comparison, estimates from the Horvitz–Thompson estimator also are presented. |
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| Keywords: | Resource assessment anchored method Geo-anchored method Horvitz– Thompson estimator sensitivity test simulation |
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