| 基于全球导航卫星系统资料的短时降水预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚宜斌,赵庆志,李祖锋,何亚东.基于全球导航卫星系统资料的短时降水预报[J].水科学进展,2016,27(3):357-365. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚宜斌 赵庆志 李祖锋 何亚东 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.武汉大学测绘学院, 湖北武汉 430079; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41274022);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2013AA122502) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据大气对天顶对流层延迟(Zenith Tropospheric Delay, ZTD)影响的变化特征,提出并实现了一种无气象数据短时降水预报的方法。利用2015年5—6月浙江连续运行参考站(Continuously Operating Reference Station, CORS)网的全球导航卫星系统(Global Navigation Satellite System, GNSS)观测数据和对应每小时的降水量信息对该方法进行验证,结果表明该方法能够预测出80%以上的降水事件,与国际上利用气象数据根据大气可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV)预测出的结果精度相当。表明脱离地面实测气象数据仅利用ZTD对短时降水进行预报可行有效,对于降水的短时预报具有重要研究意义和应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 全球导航卫星系统 天顶对流层延迟 气象数据 连续运行参考站 降水预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015-11-02 |
Short-term precipitation forecasting based on the data from GNSS observation |
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| YAO Yibin,ZHAO Qingzhi,LI Zufeng,HE Yadong.Short-term precipitation forecasting based on the data from GNSS observation[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(3):357-365. |
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| Authors: | YAO Yibin ZHAO Qingzhi LI Zufeng HE Yadong |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Geodesy and Geomatics, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;2.Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment and Geodesy, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China;3.Powerchina Xibei Engineering Corporation Limited, Xi'an 710065, China |
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| Abstract: | The Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) can be used for the study of precipitation forecasting, but it needs the support of ground measured meteorological data. In order to solve this problem, a method of precipitation forecasting without using the ground measured meteorological data is proposed and realized in this paper based on the characteristics of Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) affected by atmosphere. It is validated using the data from Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS) of Zhejiang province and hourly precipitation during the period from May to June, 2015. The he results show that the proposed method is capable of forecasting 80% of rainfalls, which is equal to the results obtained based on PWV with meteorological data. This indicates that the short-term forecasting method based on the ZTD without considering the measured meteorological data is effective and feasible, which shows significant research and application value for short-term precipitation forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | global navigation satellite system zenith tropospheric delay meteorological data continuously operating reference station precipitation forecasting |
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