Drought forecasting using stochastic models |
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| Authors: | A K Mishra V R Desai |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, 721302, India |
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| Abstract: | Drought is a global phenomenon that occurs virtually in all landscapes causing significant damage both in natural environment
and in human lives. Due to the random nature of contributing factors, occurrence and severity of droughts can be treated as
stochastic in nature. Early indication of possible drought can help to set out drought mitigation strategies and measures
in advance. Therefore drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of water resource systems.
In this study, linear stochastic models known as ARIMA and multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(SARIMA) models were used to forecast droughts based on the procedure of model development. The models were applied to forecast
droughts using standardized precipitation index (SPI) series in the Kansabati river basin in India, which lies in the Purulia
district of West Bengal state in eastern India. The predicted results using the best models were compared with the observed
data. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data, 1–2 months ahead. The predicted value decreases
with increase in lead-time. So the models can be used to forecast droughts up to 2 months of lead-time with reasonably accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | Kansabati catchment ARIMA model SARIMA model SPI Forecasting |
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