| 1961-2014年焉耆盆地霜冻气候分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 隆永兰,刘濛濛,夏玉莲.1961-2014年焉耆盆地霜冻气候分析[J].新疆气象,2017,11(1):81-86. |
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| 作者姓名： | 隆永兰 刘濛濛 夏玉莲 |
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| 作者单位： | 巴音郭楞蒙古自治州气象局,巴音郭楞蒙古自治州气象局,蔡家湖气象站 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆气象局科研基金面上课题（ms201611） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用焉耆盆地3个气象站1961-2014年的初终霜冻日、无霜期资料,采用线性倾向估计法、多项式趋势、M-K检测等统计方法,分析焉耆盆地54a来霜冻气候变化特征。结果表明：(1)焉耆盆地平均初、终霜冻整体均呈显著线性后推趋势,平均分别后推了3d和21d,终霜冻推后速率大于初霜冻,无霜期呈缩短趋势,平均缩短了18d,具有明显的年代际特征。(2)平均初、终霜冻及无霜期分别于1987年、1985年、1967年发生了气候突变,初、终霜冻均表现为由提前转为明显推迟,无霜期表现为由延长转为缩短.(3)焉耆盆地特早、偏早初霜冻发生频率分别为7%和22%,发生在60年代到90年代,特晚、偏晚终霜冻发生频率分别为4%和11%,多发生在70年代和90年代,21世纪各出现一次。(4)终霜日显著推后,无霜期缩短,是今后焉耆盆地农业生产结构优化关注的重点。
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| 关 键 词： | 焉耆盆地 霜冻特征 突变分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/8/9 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/11/20 0:00:00 |
Frost Feature Climate Change and Abrupt Analysis in the YanQi Basin from 1961 to 2014 |
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| Institution: | Bayingolin mongol Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Bureau,Bayingolin mongol Autonomous Prefecture Meteorological Bureau,Caijiahu Weather Station |
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| Abstract: | Using theSlinear trend estimation, polynomial trend, statistical methods such as the M - K detection, based on the 3 meteorological stations first frost dates, last frost dates and frost-free period data in YanQi Basin during the period from 1961 to 2014, analysis of 54a frost characteristics of climate change in YanQi Basin. The results show that:(1) The average first frost date and last frost date in YanQi Basin showed a significant linear push trends overall were averaged pushed 3d and 21d, respectively. Last frost back rate is greater than the first frost, frost-free period is shorten trend, the average shortened 18 d has obvious decadal characteristics.(2) Average first frost date, last frost date and frost-free period in 1987, 1987 and 1967 occurred climate mutation, respectively. First frost date and the last frost date is advance become significantly delayed, frost-free period is extended to shortened. (3)Especially early, partial early first frost in YanQi Basin occurrence frequency of 7% and 22%, respectively, occurred in the 1960s to the 1990s, and especially late, partial late last frost occurrence frequency of 4% and 11%, respectively, occurred in the 1970s and 1990s, each appear once in the 21st century. (4) Last frost date significantly delayed and frost-free period shorten is the concerns of the agricultural production structure optimization in YanQi Basin. |
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| Keywords: | YanQi Basin Frost feature Mutation analysis |
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