| 不同初始场及其扰动对WRF 模拟暴雨的影响 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 袁有林,杨秀洪,杨必华,赵军,周开鹏,陈广.不同初始场及其扰动对WRF 模拟暴雨的影响[J].新疆气象,2017,11(1):67-75. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 袁有林 杨秀洪 杨必华 赵军 周开鹏 陈广 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国人民解放军63610部队,中国人民解放军63610部队,中国人民解放军63610部队,中国人民解放军63610部队,中国人民解放军63610部队,中国人民解放军63610部队 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 使用ERA-interim和FNL再分析资料分别驱动WRF,对2013年7月12—13日的一次暴雨过程进行数值模拟,详细比较了WRF模拟结果之间的差异。结果表明:(1)两种资料在次天气尺度上存在着较大差异,并由此造成了模拟结果之间的差异,ERA-interim作为初始场对降水的模拟优于FNL资料,反映了WRF对初、边界条件的敏感性;(2)从区域总降水量来看,湿度场扰动对降水量的影响最大,其次是风场扰动和温度场扰动,最小的是侧边界扰动;(3)从降水误差来看,湿度场扰动引起的降水误差最大,在积分20 h内风场扰动的降水误差大于温度场,积分21~24 h则相反,侧边界扰动引起的降水误差在前期比较小且增长缓慢,积分一段时间之后与单个气象要素扰动引起的降水误差相当。
|
| 关 键 词： | WRF 暴雨 初始场 初值扰动 侧边界扰动 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016/6/3 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016/11/17 0:00:00 |
Effects of Different Initial Fields and Initial Perturbations on Simulation of a heavy rainfall by WRF |
| |
| YUAN Youlin,YANG Xiu Hong,YANG Bihu,ZHAO Jun,zhoukaipeng and CHEN Guang.Effects of Different Initial Fields and Initial Perturbations on Simulation of a heavy rainfall by WRF[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2017,11(1):67-75. |
| |
| Authors: | YUAN Youlin YANG Xiu Hong YANG Bihu ZHAO Jun zhoukaipeng and CHEN Guang |
| |
| Abstract: | A typical heavy rainfall process occurred during 12-13th July 2013 in the north of China was simulated using the meso-scale model WRF V3.6. Two groups of contrast numerical experiments were conducted to investigate the sensitivity of model prediction results to initial fields provided by the ERA-Interim and FNL data, respectively. Then, the initial perturbations were added to the lateral boundary and the initial field of physical variables (temperature, humidity and wind) aimed to analyze its influence on the precipitation forecast. The results show that: (1) there is a significant difference between the initial field of the ERA-Interim and FNL data at the sub-synoptic scale, thus leading to different simulation results. The simulated precipitation from the ERA-Interim data is better than that of the FNL data. (2) For 24-hour area precipitation forecast, the perturbation in humidity field has the greatest impact on precipitation, closely followed by that in wind and temperature field, the lateral boundary perturbation has the least impact. (3) The root mean square error (RMSE) of precipitation caused by humidity field perturbation is larger than that caused by the other initial perturbations. In the first 20 hours of the integration period, the RMSE of precipitation caused by wind field perturbation is larger than that caused by temperature field perturbation, while the opposite occurs in the integration period of 21~24h. The precipitation RMSE caused by lateral boundary perturbation is small in the early stage, and the growth is slow. After a period of model integration, the RMSE of precipitation caused by lateral boundary perturbation is equivalent to that caused by the initial field perturbation of single meteorological variables. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《新疆气象》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《新疆气象》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
