Using a Convection Model to Predict Altitudes of White Stork Migration Over Central Israel |
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| Authors: | Judy Shamoun-Baranes Olivier Liechti Yoram Yom-Tov Yossi Leshem |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Zoology, George Wise Faculty of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, 69978, Israel;(2) Analysen and Konzepte, Lindbergstraat 8d, CH-8404 Winterthur, Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | Soaring migrants such as storks, pelicans and large birds of prey rely on thermal convection during migration. The convection model ALPTHERM was designed to predict the onset, strength, duration and depth of thermal convection for varying topographies for glider pilots, based on atmospheric conditions at midnight. We tested ALPTHERM predictions as configured for two topographies of central Israel, the Coastal Plains and the Judean and Samarian Mountains in order to predict altitudes of migrating white storks (Ciconia ciconia). Migrating flocks of white storks were tracked with a motorized glider, to measure maximum altitudes of migration during spring 2000. A significant positive correlation was found between the maximum daily altitudes of migration measured and the predicted upper boundary of thermal convection for the Coastal Plains and Samarian Mountains. Thirty-minute predictions for the Coastal Plains and Samarian Mountains correlated positively with measured maximum migration altitudes per thermal. ALPTHERM forecasts can be used to alter flight altitudes in both civil and especially military aviation and reduce the hazard of serious aircraft collisions with soaring migrants. |
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| Keywords: | Flight safety Israel Migration Soaring Thermal convection White storks |
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