Simulating vegetation cover dynamics with regards to long-term climatic variations in sub-arctic landscapes |
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| Authors: | Hrur V Haraldsson Rannveig
lafsdttir |
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| Institution: | a Chemical Engineering II, Lund Institute of Technology, Box 124, SE-221 00, Lund, Sweden;b Hornafjordur University Centre, University of Iceland, Nyheimar, Litlabru 2, 780 Hofn, Iceland |
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| Abstract: | Iceland is facing severe land degradation in many parts of the country. This study aims to increase the understanding of the complex interactions and interconnectivity between the critical factors that help maintain the land degradation processes in sub-arctic environments. A holistic approach in the form of a causal loop diagram (CLD) is applied for diagnosing the influencing factors. To further study the relationship between vegetation cover and its degradation, a dynamic model that uses a long-term temperature data as the main indicator function is constructed to simulate potential vegetation cover during the Holocene. The results depict an oscillating vegetation cover. Gradual degradation in potential vegetation cover begins ca. 3000 BP and accelerates greatly after ca. 2500 BP. From the time of the Norse settlement in the latter halve of the 9th century to present time, the simulated vegetation cover retreats ca. 25% in relation to climatic cooling. |
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| Keywords: | Causal loop diagram Dynamic simulations Land degradation Vegetation cover Holocene Iceland |
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