Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs |
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| Authors: | Ulrike Löptien Olga Zolina Sergey Gulev Mojib Latif Vladimir Soloviov |
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| Institution: | (1) Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany;(2) P. P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, 36, Nakhimovsky Prospekt, 117997 Moscow, Russia;(3) Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 20, 53121 Bonn, Germany |
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| Abstract: | Cyclone activity and life cycle are analysed in the coupled GCMs ECHAM5/OM and ECHAM4/OPYC3. First, the results for the present
climate (1978–1999) are compared with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, showing a drastic improvement in the representation
of cyclone activity in ECHAM5/OM compared to ECHAM4/OPYC3. The total number of cyclones, cyclone intensity, propagation velocity
and deepening rates are found to be much more realistic in ECHAM5/OM relative to ECHAM4/OPYC3. Then, changes in extra tropical
cyclone characteristics are compared between present day climate and future climate under the emission-scenario A1B using
ECHAM5/OM. This comparison is performed using the 20-year time slices 1978–1999, 2070–2090 and 2170–2190, which were considered
to be representative for the various climate conditions. The total number of cyclones does not undergo significant changes
in a warmer climate. However, regional changes in cyclone numbers and frequencies are evident. One example is the Mediterranean
region where the number of cyclones in summer increases almost by factor 2. Some noticeable changes are also found in cyclone
life cycle characteristics (deepening rate and propagation velocity). Cyclones in the future climate scenario tend to move
slower and their deepening rate becomes stronger, while cyclone intensity does not undergo significant change in a warmer
climate. Generally, our results do not support the hypothesis of enhanced storminess under future climate conditions. |
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| Keywords: | Cyclone characteristics Climate-change Storm tracks Extra tropical cyclones Cyclone tracking Reanalysis Northern Hemisphere ECHAM |
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