| 南水北调中线工程交叉建筑物水毁风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩国宏,王汝慈.南水北调中线工程交叉建筑物水毁风险分析[J].水文,1995(3):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩国宏 王汝慈 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学，天津勘测设计院 |
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| 摘 要： | 南水北调中线工程输水总干渠上需建数以百计的河渠交叉建筑物。总干渠经过地区为暴雨多发区，只要其中任一座遭遇特大洪水而失事，干渠供水将会受到影响。对这些交叉建筑物进行水毁风险分析，是此项工程规划、设计和运行管理的供输水风险评价和可靠度分析必不可少的组成部分。主要从水文风险要素的辨识入手，采用概率组合法，建立了整个总干渠洪水水毁风险计算的框架，并提出了二维复合事件的风险计算模型。所建模型巧妙地解决了各交
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| 关 键 词： | 南水北调工程 水工建筑物 风险分析 水毁 |
The Risk Analysis of Flood Damaging to the Cross-structures on the Main Canal of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project |
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| Zhu Yuansheng,Han Guohong.The Risk Analysis of Flood Damaging to the Cross-structures on the Main Canal of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project[J].Hydrology,1995(3):1-7. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Yuansheng Han Guohong |
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| Institution: | Zhu Yuansheng;Han Guohong(Hohai University)Wang Ruci;Zhao Yanwen(Tianjin Investigation and Design Institute) |
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| Abstract: | The main canal of the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project is so long as 1241.2km,and has hundreds of cross-structures such as aqueducts.If any one fails somewhere on the canal due to ab-normal floods, water supply will be discontinued.Therefore,the hydrological risk is one of the key points in the re-liability and risk assessment for the project.The risk computation for the complex serial system is effectively sim-plified by two-dimension joint probability distribution and the Minimum Frequency Series.A general risk asses-ment model has been presented and calibrated comprehensively with the data of a segment of the canal.It turnsout that the results are reasonable and the model is applicable for the other water supply systems. |
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| Keywords: | South-to-North Water Transfer Project hydraulic structure risk analysis probability model |
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