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| 水位波动诱发岩溶塌陷的概率分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 蒙彦,殷坤龙,雷明堂.水位波动诱发岩溶塌陷的概率分析[J].中国岩溶,2006,25(3):239-241. |
| 作者姓名： | 蒙彦 殷坤龙 雷明堂 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质大学(武汉)研究生院,湖北,武汉,430074;中国地质科学院岩溶地质研究所,广西,桂林,541004 2. 中国地质大学(武汉)研究生院,湖北,武汉,430074 3. 中国地质科学院岩溶地质研究所,广西,桂林,541004 |
| 基金项目： | 广西科学基金;国土资源部地质调查项目 |
| 摘 要： | 水位波动诱发岩溶塌陷的概率问题可以简化为波动幅度、波动频率和波动时间3个随机变量的极值分布问题。随机变量的极值分布可以通过对水位监测数据进行频谱分析获得。桂林市柘木村水位波动诱发岩溶塌陷概率分析的结果表明:柘木村2000年水位波动诱发岩溶塌陷的概率为7.38%,2001年为1.47%,2002年为16.4%。分析结果与实际情况也比较吻合,2002年6月柘木村一老塌陷复活,而2000和2001年则未发生塌陷,仅有部分土层发生扰动。因此可以用概率分析来判别某一时段内由水位波动而诱发岩溶塌陷的危险性大小,以便于分时段进行重点防治。 |
| 关 键 词： | 岩溶塌陷 概率分析 频谱分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4810（2006）03-0239-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-04-26 |
PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS ON KARST COLLAPSE INDUCED BY WATER TABLE FLUCTUATION |
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| MENG Yan,YIN Kun-long and LEI Ming-tang.PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS ON KARST COLLAPSE INDUCED BY WATER TABLE FLUCTUATION[J].Carsologica Sinica,2006,25(3):239-241. | |
| Authors: | MENG Yan YIN Kun-long and LEI Ming-tang |
| Institution: | 1. School of Graduate, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, China ; 2. Institute of Karst Geology, CAGS, Guilin,Guangxi 541004, China |
| Abstract: | Probabilistic analysis of karst collapse induced by water table fluctuation is equal to the extremum distribution of fluctuation margin,vibration frequency and wave time.The extremum distribution of stochastic variable can be obtained by spectral analysis.The probabilistic analysis of karst collapse to Zhemu village in Guilin indicates that the probabilistic was 7.38% in 2000,1.47% in 2001 and 16.4% in 2002.The fact is that an old karst collapse had opened in June of 2002,however it was safe in 2000 and 2001.The result is formed by the difference of fluctuation margin,vibration frequency and wave time.So,the Probabilistic analysis can distinguish the risk of karst collapse induced by the water table fluctuation in some periods of time and can make us to do some measures in different periods. |
| Keywords: | Karst collapse Probabilistic analysis Spectral analysis |
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