| 考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理 |
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| 引用本文： | 李典庆,吴帅兵.考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理[J].岩土力学,2006,27(12):2239-2245. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李典庆 吴帅兵 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，武汉 430072 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理方法。以香港地区近20年的16 000个切破的观测资料为基础，从统计学的角度提出了边坡的时变可靠性分析方法。推导了新建边坡在未来服役时间内的年失效概率的计算公式，并对现役边坡在未来服役时间内的年失效概率进行了预测。确定了基于年死亡人数的滑坡风险接受准则，并分析了基于滑坡时变风险的边坡加固时间。结果表明，考虑时间效应的滑坡风险评估和管理方法能够更加真实地反映滑坡随时间变化的特性。新建边坡的年失效概率随边坡服役时间逐渐增大，尤其是当边坡服役超过10年时，每年发生滑坡的概率急剧增大。现役边坡的年失效概率基本与继续服役时间呈线形关系。此外，香港斜坡维修指南规定的边坡加固时间能够有效地将滑坡风险降低到ALARP区或可接受的风险区。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 风险评估和管理 失效概率 老化 时变性 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-7598-（2006）12-2239-08 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-11-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-11 |
Landslide risk assessment and management considering time effect |
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| LI Dian-qing,WU Shuai-bing.Landslide risk assessment and management considering time effect[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2006,27(12):2239-2245. |
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| Authors: | LI Dian-qing WU Shuai-bing |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China |
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| Abstract: | A landslide risk assessment and management considering time effect is proposed. From a statistical point of view, a time-dependent reliability approach for deteriorating slopes is formulated based on about 20-year observed performance of 16 000 soil cut slopes in Hong Kong. The annual probability of failure for new slopes is deduced; and an approach is presented to predict the annual probability of failure for existing slopes within next service time, Risk acceptance criteria in terms of annual risk of fatality are selected. Based on them, a risk based maintenance planning for slopes is obtained. The results indicate that the landslide risk assessment and management considering time effect can be capable of capturing the deteriorating characteristics of slopes effectively. The annual probability of failure for new slopes increases with time. It increases significantly when the service time of slope is longer than a decade. The relationship between the annual probability of failure for existing slopes and service time is approximately linear. In addition, the maintenance planning used in Geoguide 5 can reduce the risk of slope failure to the ALAPR region or the acceptable region effectively. |
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| Keywords: | landslides risk assessment and management probability of failure deterioration time dependence |
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