| 祁连山北麓牧区社会-生态系统脆弱性诊断
——以甘肃肃南裕固族自治县为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 王娅,杨国靖,周立华.祁连山北麓牧区社会-生态系统脆弱性诊断
——以甘肃肃南裕固族自治县为例[J].冰川冻土,2021,43(2):370-380. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王娅 杨国靖 周立华 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000;中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000;中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190;中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20020401);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0404);中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院青年基金项目(Y851D71) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于人与自然耦合视角，辨识社会-生态系统脆弱性是区域可持续发展研究的核心议题和前沿领域。依据社会-生态系统和脆弱性经典范式VSD模型（Vulnerability Scoping Diagram），利用显式空间脆弱性指数和致脆因子诊断模型分析了2004—2016年肃南县社会-生态系统脆弱性的变化趋势及其致脆因子。结果表明：该县社会-生态系统的暴露度指数介于0.374~0.725，整体呈先降，再升，后降的趋势。敏感性指数和适应性指数均呈持续波动上涨趋势，脆弱性指数由2006年的0.327持续上升至2014年的1.081后，又下降至0.440。该县社会-生态系统脆弱性的潜在风险和致脆因子主要来源于系统的暴露度，牲畜密度、人均GDP、植被覆盖度是影响系统暴露度涨落的潜在风险因素，退牧还草工程及财政支出支持力度是社会-生态系统脆弱性提升的关键致脆因素。未来肃南县应放缓经济发展增速，提高第三产业GDP比重、加大财政支出力度、推进落实草原生态保护政策及其可持续治理长效机制，以降低社会-生态系统脆弱性的风险。
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| 关 键 词： | 社会-生态系统 脆弱性 VSD框架 致脆因子诊断 祁连山北麓牧区 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-10-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-03-27 |
The vulnerability diagnosis of the pastoral area social-ecological system in northern Qilian Mountains:a case study on the Sunan Yugur Autonomous County in Gansu Province |
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| WANG Ya,YANG Guojing,ZHOU Lihua.The vulnerability diagnosis of the pastoral area social-ecological system in northern Qilian Mountains:a case study on the Sunan Yugur Autonomous County in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2021,43(2):370-380. |
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| Authors: | WANG Ya YANG Guojing ZHOU Lihua |
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| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Desert and Desertification，Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，China;2.Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin，Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，China;3.Institutes of Science and Development，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100190，China;4.School of Public Policy and Management，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100049，China |
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| Abstract: | Identifying the vulnerability of social-ecological system from the perspective of the coupling of human and nature is the core issue and frontier area of regional sustainable development research. Based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram （VSD） model which is the classical paradigm in the field of social-ecological system and vulnerability， this paper introduced the function formula of Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability and the diagnostic model of vulnerability factors to analysis the change trends and embrittlement factor of vulnerability of social-ecological system in Sunan County during 2004 to 2016. The results showed that： the exposure index ranged from 0.374 to 0.725， which shows a fluctuation trend of falling-rising-falling. Both sensitivity index and adaptability index show a trend of continuous fluctuating increase. The vulnerability index continued to rise from 0.327 in 2006 to 1.081 in 2014 and then dropped to 0.440 in 2016. The potential risks and fragility factors of the vulnerability of social-ecological system mainly come from the system’s exposure. The index of livestock density， per capita GDP， and vegetation coverage are potential risk factors that affect the fluctuation of system exposure. The support of fiscal expenditure and returning grazing to grass project are the key fragile factor of increasing the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems of this county. Therefore， to reduce the risk the vulnerability of social-ecological system， Sunan County should slow down the economic growth rate， increase the fiscal expenditure and proportion of tertiary industry in GDP， and promote the implementation of grassland ecological protection policies and its long-term sustainable governance mechanisms in the future. |
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| Keywords: | social-ecological system vulnerability VSD framework diagnostic model of vulnerability factors pastoral area of northern Qilian Mountains |
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