A nonlinear time-lag differential equation model for predicting monthly precipitation |
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| Authors: | Peng Yongqing Yan Shaojin Wang Tongmei |
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| Institution: | Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044,Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044,Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | This paper investigates the nonlinear prediction of monthly rainfall time series which consists of phase space con-tinuation of one-dimensional sequence, followed by least-square determination of the coefficients for the terms of the time-lag differential equation model and then fitting of the prognostic expression is made to 1951-1980 monthly rainfall datasets from Changsha station Results show that the model is likely to describe the nonlinearity of the an-nual cycle of precipitation on a monthly basis and to provide a basis for flood prevention and drought combating for the wet season. |
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| Keywords: | Monthly rainfall Phase space continuation Time-lag differential equation |
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