Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach |
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| Authors: | Ke Fan MeiJing Lin YuZhong Gao |
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| Institution: | (1) Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China;(2) Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China;(3) Heilongjiang Meteorological Administration, Harbin, 150030, China |
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| Abstract: | A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July–August (JA) is proposed. DY is
defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes
the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated
with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established
by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed
NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout
period 1965–1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly
over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000–2007, with an average relative root mean square error of
21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage
of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965–2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the
summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%–70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over
North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer
precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.
Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421406), National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant Nos. 40631005, 40775049) and Excellent Ph. D Dissertation in Chinese Academy of Sciences |
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| Keywords: | annual increment North China precipitation prediction prediction skill |
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