Cautious neotectonic hypotheses for assessing the seismic hazard in northeastern Italy |
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| Authors: | Joanna E Papoulia Dario Slejko |
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| Institution: | (1) Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization, Athens, Greece;(2) Osservatorio Geofisico Sperimentale, Trieste, Italy |
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| Abstract: | A simplified tectonic scheme for hazard purposes was recently adopted for northeastern Italy, introducing large generalized seismogenic areas containing systems of complex geometry faults. This scheme considers only major faults with documented seismic activity. In the present analysis, a different tectonic scheme, with linear elements as seismogenic sources, is presented. The assessment of the regional seismic hazard is done with the fault rupture model, its most important advantage being the recognition that the length of fault rupture during an earthquake is an important consideration in probabilistic calculations of seismic hazard. Moreover, some structures with no associated seismicity but with notable neotectonic activity are considered, and their contribution to the results investigated. Important uncertainties such as those in the maximum possible magnitude of future earthquakes, in the location of the fault, in the focal depth, and in the attenuation law are accounted for in the calculations and their influence studied. The results identify a seismic belt running from Lake Garda to Friuli and along the Yugoslav coast and are very similar to those already known for Friuli, with the largest values corresponding to the zone around Gemona. Some slight differences in the shape of the areas of equal acceleration are probably due to the delineation of the seismic sources of the proposed model. For a cautious elaboration, some neotectonic lines without present seismicity were added into the fault model. Their contribution is negligible in the areas of highest acceleration, but increases remarkably in the areas where acceleration is not expected to exceed the medium values. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic hazard fault rupture model neotectonic faults northeastern Italy |
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