| 基于联合分布的珠江口设计潮位过程线方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周月英,关帅.基于联合分布的珠江口设计潮位过程线方法研究[J].水文,2018,38(5):1-5. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周月英 关帅 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学新华学院;广东省水利水电科学研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41301627)；高等学校专业综合改革试点项目(20152003)；广东省水利科技创新项目(2017-12)； |
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| 摘 要： | 针对同倍比方法与同频率方法推求设计潮位过程线中的局限性,采用4种边际分布函数对珠江口年最高潮位与年最大潮差序列进行拟合的基础上,选取4种不同的二维Archimedean Copula函数建立珠江口年最高潮位与年最大潮差的联合分布,并分析了高潮位重现期与潮位过程同现重现期的线性关系。结果表明:高潮位与潮差的同现重现期总是大于相应边际分布的重现期,并且随着边际分布重现期的增大,同现重现期增幅也越大,说明较高重现期的高潮位与潮差同时发生的可能性很小;基于高潮位重现期与潮位过程同现重现期的线性关系,采用基于联合分布的方法推求珠江口潮位过程线,推求结果较同频率法更为合理。
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| 关 键 词： | 设计潮位过程线 高潮位 潮差 Copula函数 概率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/7/23 0:00:00 |
Derivation of Design Tide Curve for Pearl River Estuary Based on Bivariate Joint Distribution |
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| ZHOU Yueying,GUAN Shuai.Derivation of Design Tide Curve for Pearl River Estuary Based on Bivariate Joint Distribution[J].Hydrology,2018,38(5):1-5. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Yueying GUAN Shuai |
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| Institution: | 1. Xinhua College of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510520, China;2. Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guangzhou 510630, China |
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| Abstract: | For the limitation of calculating and designing the design tide level process line with the same ratio method and samefrequency methods, and based on using 4 kinds of marginal distribution functions to fit the annual highest tide level and maximumtide range sequence in the Pearl River estuary, this paper selected 4 kinds of different two-dimensional Archimedean Copula functionsto establish the joint distribution of annual highest tide level and annual maximum tide range in the Pearl River estuary, andanalyzed the linear relationship between the return period of highest tide level and simultaneous return period of tide level process.The results show that the simultaneous recurrence period of highest tide level and tide range is always more than that of marginaldistribution. Besides, with the increase of return period of marginal distribution, the simultaneous return period will also be increased,and this shows that the possibility of simultaneous return period of highest tide level and tide range is very small. In theend, the joint distribution method is more reasonable than the same frequency method in calculating the tide level process line inthe Pearl River estuary. |
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| Keywords: | design tide curve high tidal level tidal range Copula function probability |
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