| Abstract: | An analysis of the data in the catalogues of Italian earthquakes indicates that large earthquakes which occur in the area of radius of about 140 km centered in the Straits of Messina occur in sequences. Each sequence is generally formed by two events and covers an average time window of 10 years.The last four sequences occurred in the time windows 1783–1891, 1818–1823, 1865–1870, 1905–1908 and are separated by about 40 years indicating that in that area there is now a gap in the time domain.The analysis of the data in the Catalogue for the region between the latitudes 39°N and 41°50′N indicates that in that region the large earthquakes occurred in 13 sequences. Each sequence is formed by 3 events in average and covers an average time window of 7 years. This indicates that, after the earthquake of Nov. 1980, which occurred after a gap of 67 years, other moderately large earthquakes may be expected in that area in the next few years. |
