| 基于Monte-Carlo方法的土石围堰挡水导流风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡志根,刘全,贺昌海,肖焕雄,周宜红,傅峥,李定葵,郑家祥.基于Monte-Carlo方法的土石围堰挡水导流风险分析[J].水科学进展,2002,13(5):634-638. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡志根 刘全 贺昌海 肖焕雄 周宜红 傅峥 李定葵 郑家祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.武汉大学水利水电学院, 湖北, 武汉, 430072; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50079017) |
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| 摘 要： | 运用Monte-Carlo方法模拟施工洪水入库过程和导流建筑物泄流的随机性,通过仿真分析确定上游围堰堰前水位变化过程及其分布函数.在此基础上,根据导流建筑物的设计规模确定导流系统的风险.通过实例验证分析说明,研究方法和计算模型是可靠的、适用的.
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| 关 键 词： | 土石围堰 施工导流 风险分析 Monte-Carlo方法 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-6791(2002)05-634-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2001-07-30 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年7月30日 |
Risk analysis of retaining rockfill cofferdam for diversion based on the Monte-Carlo method |
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| HU Zhi-gen,LIU Quan,HE Chang-hai,XIAO Huan-xiong,ZHOU Yi-hong,FU Zheng,LI Ding-kui,ZHENG Jia-xiang.Risk analysis of retaining rockfill cofferdam for diversion based on the Monte-Carlo method[J].Advances in Water Science,2002,13(5):634-638. |
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| Authors: | HU Zhi-gen LIU Quan HE Chang-hai XIAO Huan-xiong ZHOU Yi-hong FU Zheng LI Ding-kui ZHENG Jia-xiang |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;2.Chengdu Hydroelectric Investigation and Research Institute of SPC, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Risk of the construction diversion system is controlled by the real capacity of flood discharge and flood inflow,which has uncertain and dynamic pn}perties.The paper uses the Monte-Carlo method to simulate the flood during construction and discharge process of diversion structure,analyaes statistically water level change of cofferdam in upperstream,and obtains a distribution function of the water level change.Based on the computational results,the risk of the diversion system are determined.The case study shows that the simulation model and analytical method are reliable and reasonable. |
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| Keywords: | rockfill cofferdam construction diversion risk analysis Monte-Carlo method |
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