| 提高月降水量预报精度的一种尝试 |
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| 引用本文： | 张永革,王延贵.提高月降水量预报精度的一种尝试[J].气象,1999,25(10):35-37. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张永革 王延贵 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]山东省枣庄市气象局 [2]山东济宁市气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 用原始数据建立的多元自回归预报模型，虽然对气压，气温，绝对湿度的预报精度很高，但对月降水量的预报粗度较低，改用自典型相关因子建模，大大提高了月降水量的预报精度，对气压，气温，绝对湿度的预报亦有所改进。
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| 关 键 词： | 自典型相关因子 月降水量 预报精度 降水预报 |
An Attempt to Improve Accuracy in Monthly Rainfall Forecast |
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| Zhang Yongge.An Attempt to Improve Accuracy in Monthly Rainfall Forecast[J].Meteorological Monthly,1999,25(10):35-37. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Yongge |
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| Abstract: | Although the plural autogression forecast model based on primary data can get high accuracy in atmospheric pressure,temprature and absolute humidity forecasts,its application to monthly rainfall forecast is unsatisfactory.The model based on typical factor of autocorrelation was suggested,which can get much higher accuracy in monthly rainfall forecast while improves the accuracy in atmospheric pressure,temperature and absolute humidity forecasts as well. |
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| Keywords: | typical factor of autocorrelation monthly rainfall forecast accuracy |
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