| Improved stress release model: Application to the study of earthquake prediction in Taiwan area |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 朱守彪 石耀霖 |
| |
| 作者单位： | College of Disaster Prevention Techniques |
| |
| 基金项目： | National Key Basic Research Project (G98040706). |
| |
| 摘 要： | Introduction Stress release model (SRM) was proposed by Vere-Jones (1978) for statistical study of seismicity. Physically it is a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory of earthquake genesis. The classical elastic rebound model suggests that the stress has been slowly accumulating until the burst of an earthquake occurrence for stress release. This can be simulated by the jump Markov process in stochastic field, and SRM was developed on the basis of Knopoff (s Markov model (Knop…
|
| 收稿时间： | 13 March 2001 |
| 修稿时间： | 11 January 2002 |
Improved stress release model: Application to the study of earthquake prediction in Taiwan area |
| |
| Zhu Shou-biao,and Shi Yao-lin.Improved stress release model: Application to the study of earthquake prediction in Taiwan area[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition),2002,15(2):171-178. |
| |
| Authors: | Zhu Shou-biao and Shi Yao-lin |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039; China College of Disaster Prevention Technique, Beijing 101601, China
2. Graduate School, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Stress release model used to be applied to seismicity study of large historical earthquakes in a space of large scale. In
this paper, we improve the stress release model, and discuss whether the stress release model is still applicable or not in
the case of smaller spatio-temporal scale and weaker earthquakes. As an example of testing the model, we have analyzed the
M≥6 earthquakes in recent about 100 years. The result shows that the stress release model is still applicable. The earthquake
conditional probability intensity in Taiwan area is calculated with the improved stress release model. We see that accuracy
of earthquake occurrence time predicted by the improved stress release model is higher than that by Poisson model in the test
of retrospect earthquake prediction.
Foundation item: National Key Basic Research Project (G98040706). |
| |
| Keywords: | improved stress release model conditional probability intensity Poisson model Taiwan area |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 SpringerLink 等数据库收录！ |
