Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna,Italy, by means of event bush |
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| Authors: | Boris Behncke Cyril A Pshenichny |
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| Institution: | 1. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania; Piazza Roma, 2; 95123 Catania, Italy;2. Geological Mapping Division, VNII Okeangeologia, Angliisky Prospect, 1, 190121 St. Petersburg, Russia;3. Institute of Mathematical Geology, Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, Universitetskaya Naberezhnaya, 7/9, 199034 St. Petersburg, Russia |
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| Abstract: | One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks. |
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| Keywords: | Mt Etna volcanic hazard artificial intelligence event bush method |
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