| 粒子滤波同化在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动目标观测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 段晚锁,封凡,侯美夷.粒子滤波同化在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动目标观测中的应用[J].大气科学,2018,42(3):677-695. |
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| 作者姓名： | 段晚锁 封凡 侯美夷 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室, 北京 100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目41525017、41690124;"全球变化与海气相互作用"专项GASI-IPOVAI-06;成都信息工程大学引进人才科研启动项目KYTZ201736 National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants 41525017 and 41690124),National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction(Grant GASI-IPOVAI-06),Scientific Research Foundation of Chengdu University of Information Technology(Grant KYTZ201736) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对粒子滤波—目标观测方法的局限性,提出了能够克服该局限性的新目标观测方法,并将其应用于厄尔尼诺—南方涛动可预报性研究,揭示了东太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件和中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的目标观测敏感区。通过同化该敏感区的目标观测,显著减小了两类厄尔尼诺事件的预报不确定性,验证了新方法揭示的目标观测敏感区在改进厄尔尼诺预报技巧中具有更加重要的作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 粒子滤波 目标观测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017/11/3 0:00:00 |
Application of Particle Filter Assimilation in the Target Observation for El Niño-Southern Oscillation |
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| DUAN Wansuo,FENG Fan and HOU Meiyi.Application of Particle Filter Assimilation in the Target Observation for El Niño-Southern Oscillation[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2018,42(3):677-695. |
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| Authors: | DUAN Wansuo FENG Fan and HOU Meiyi |
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| Institution: | State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;College of Earth Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049,School of Atmospheric Sciences/Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province/Joint Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225 and College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Considering the limitation of particle filter-target observation approach, the present study proposes a new target observation approach that can overcome this limitation. This new approach is then applied to the study of the predictability of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and reveals the sensitive areas for targeting observation associated with eastern-and central-Pacific El Ni?o events. By assimilating the target observations, the prediction uncertainties for the two types of El Ni?o events are significantly reduced. This result confirms that the sensitive areas revealed by the new approach, compared with other areas, can play a much more important role in improving the El Ni?o forecast skill. |
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| Keywords: | El Niño-Southern Oscillation Particle filter Target observation |
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