| 浙江省永嘉县滑坡灾害危险性区划 |
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| 引用本文： | 张桂荣,陈丽霞,殷坤龙.浙江省永嘉县滑坡灾害危险性区划[J].水文地质工程地质,2005,32(3):27-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张桂荣 陈丽霞 殷坤龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学工程学院,武汉,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省重大科技攻关招标项目(浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统及应用示范研究);教育部博士点基金资助项目(20030491004) |
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| 摘 要： | 永嘉县是浙江省滑坡灾害发生频繁的区县之一,其滑坡受地质、地形和人类工程活动等因素的影响。本文根据永嘉县滑坡灾害分布情况,选择了影响滑坡分布的主要因素,将各种因子归一化处理后转换成相同分辨率的定量数据,选择了逻辑回归分析模型和信息量模型进行滑坡灾害危险性评价。在逻辑回归模型中,利用SPSS软件,通过逐步回归分析筛选出影响滑坡的最直接的因子,计算出各个因子的回归系数,得到逻辑回归方程,据此编制了危险性预测分区图。在信息量模型中,通过MAPGIS软件及其二次开发的信息量模型,对永嘉县滑坡灾害进行了危险性区划,并依信息量法的结果编制了该区的危险性预测分区图。两种方法所编制的危险性分区图中高危险区和中危险区重合率达到了87%,具有很高的一致性,起到了相互验证的作用,为滑坡的有效防治提供了依据。最后根据"云娜"台风期间永嘉县实际灾害发生情况的资料分析,新灾害点绝大部分落在危险性预测区中的高危险区,表明模型的预测准确率很高。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡 危险性区划 逻辑回归模型 信息量模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3665(2005)03-0027-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年8月17日 |
Landslide hazard zonation of Yongjia County, Zhejiang Province |
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| ZHANG Gui-rong,CHEN Li-xia,YIN Kun-long.Landslide hazard zonation of Yongjia County, Zhejiang Province[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2005,32(3):27-31. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Gui-rong CHEN Li-xia YIN Kun-long |
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| Abstract: | Yongjia County in Zhejiang province, suffered large economic losses from geo-hazards in recent years due to frequent geo-hazard events. The landslides occurrences were controlled by geologic condition, topography, engineering activity and so on. According to the landslide distribution in Yongjia County, many factors influencing landslides were selected, and the paper got all factors into unitary processing and converted them into quantitative data in uniform resolution, then adopted logic regression model and information value model to assess the landslide hazard in the studied area. For logic regression model, based on SPSS software, by using regression analysis step by step, the uppermost factors were filtrated, and calculated the regression coefficient per factor, then the logic regression equation was obtained.Finally, the hazard zonation map was compiled. For information value model, on the basis of MAPGIS software platform and its customize, information value model was adopted to predict landslide hazard, then the hazard zonation map was compiled by the result of information value. In two maps, the grids of high and moderate hazard had a good coincidence, and the overlay rate reached 87%. So the two methods could validate each other, and the assessment results provided evidence for landslide control. In the end of the paper, according to the analysis of feedback information about geo-hazards occurrences during Yunna typhoon in Yongjia County, most new geo-hazards were located in high hazard region in hazard zonation map, which indicated the high accuracy of the models. |
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| Keywords: | landslide hazard zonation logic regression model information value model |
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