| 气候变化的历史记录和可能原因—IPCC 1995第一工作组报告评述 |
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| 引用本文： | 任国玉.气候变化的历史记录和可能原因—IPCC 1995第一工作组报告评述[J].气候与环境研究,1997,2(2):178-192. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任国玉 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据气候变化的历史记录，特别是古气候资料及其分析，对近现代全球气候变化的历史背景和可能原因进行了讨论，并对ＩＰＣＣ第二次评估报告的相关部分进行了评述。古气候资料表明，现在就得出结论认为过去１００年的全球增暖全部或部分地是由人为排放的温室气体引起的还为时过早。在过去的２０００年里，出现过十年到世纪时间尺度的全球或半球性气候变化，并且可能有过和现代相当的温暖阶段。加强古气候方面的研究和评估可能是解决现代全球气候变化原因问题的关键。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 温室效应 IPCC报告 古气候学 |
A Review on Records and the Possible Causes of Global Climate Changes |
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| Ren Guoyu.A Review on Records and the Possible Causes of Global Climate Changes[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,1997,2(2):178-192. |
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| Authors: | Ren Guoyu |
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| Abstract: | Much work has been conducted about the analyses of the instrumental and paleo- climate data in the past two decades. It has also been recognized that the paleo-climate data and the analysis are of importance for the understanding of the modern global climate changes. However, in the newly published IPCC report, less attention has been given to the paleo-climate history, and some treatments for the paleo-data may be improper. A review on the climate change history from instrumental as well as paleo-records is given, and the relevance of the paleo-data for the detection and attribution studies of the global climate change is discussed. On the basis of the present knowledge, it seems that the natural variability may account for at least part of the past one hundred year climate warming. Up to now, we still can not rule out the possibility that the global warming in the past century is caused mainly by the natural forcing. This conclusion does not mean that the human-induced climate change will not occur in the future, but it indeed indicates the complicated situation the scientists face at present in understanding the causes of the near-past climate change. More research works have to be conducted before we can tell the true story about the global warming and its impacts on social-economy. |
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| Keywords: | climate change paleo-climate natural variability human activities |
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